Written by Serena Thompson
As we approach another significant election, many are speculating how this year’s voter turnout will compare to previous cycles. In 2020, voter turnout was at a historic 66%, driven by the pandemic and a deeply polarized political climate. However, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be much different.
“There are already signs of this in states with early voting and mail-in voting return rates,” Professor of Political Science Sean Hildebrand said. “There are more rules with these methods of voting than during the pandemic, and I don’t think the candidates are as inspirational as they were in the recent elections in terms of motivating people to show up if they are not already likely to do so. That said, it’ll likely ballpark with other presidential elections this century between 58-62% of the voter eligible population.”
Professor Sean Hildebrand (left) and Professor Chad Kinsella hold a pre-election panel discussion on October 2, 2024
Historical Trends Reflected in This Election
This election cycle breaks away from many historical precedents. For starters, one of the candidates has faced two assassination attempts in the last three months – an unusual occurrence in modern politics. The other candidate did not win a primary and was installed by their party – also an unprecedented situation. These factors alone make this election stand out in comparison to others.
Still, some familiar patterns are emerging across the nation.
Hildebrand says this election will uphold a larger gender gap than other presidential races. According to the Brooking Institute, women have turned out more than men, especially in the Electoral College. Women accounted for 54.7% of the electorate and men accounted for 44%. The research suggests that a gender gap could shape the outcome in this election. According to recent polls, Trump is making some inroads with Hispanic and African American male voters.
The Role of Media in Shaping Public Perception
The media’s influence on public perception of the candidates cannot be understated. In the months leading to the election, we’ve seen Vice President Harris going on a well-calculated press tour – ranging from media appearances with radio host Charlamagne tha God to appearing on Fox News. Social media, specifically TikTok, has been instrumental in the Democratic Party’s appeal to young voters.
“Harris is a creation of the media. Her entire campaign is astroturf. Earlier this year, mainstream outlets were highly critical of her performance as vice president, calling her one of, if not the worst, VP’s ever. Recently, her image has been transformed into a symbol of joy and change, though ‘there are signs this is falling apart.’ Her recent interview with 60 Minutes required heavy editing, reflecting a shaky media narrative,” Hildebrand said.
Meanwhile, Former President Trump has been a fixture in the media for decades. He’s skilled at turning any coverage into an opportunity.
“Trump will just say whatever he wants as long as a camera is on or the media prints it. Any press = good press. While Harris relies more on carefully crafted media appearances, Trump embraces media attention in all its forms, often attacking reporters in ways that endear him to his base,” Hildebrand said.
Political Engagement Among Younger Voters
This election cycle has brought about the voice of younger voters, specifically Gen Z. According to Columbia Magazine, there are eight million newly eligible voters. Top issues for this subgroup are the economy, climate change, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Social media is where members of this subgroup have voiced their opinions. Some are very critical of VP Harris’ past as a prosecutor and are holding members of the Democratic Party responsible for the Israeli and Palestinian conflict.
Gen Z has embraced Kamala via memes and other forms of internet humor to express their interest in Harris, though it’s unclear if that translates into support. However, historically younger people tend to vote less, and this election is no different than those of the past.
“2008 was that high watermark as Obama spoke to youth-related issues and was seen as transformative in many ways. Since then, the youth vote has stagnated, and I don’t think that changes this year.” Despite attempts to engage young voters through podcasts, video games, and celebrity endorsements, “it isn’t going to change [turnout] in a significant way,” Hildebrand said.
Serena Thompson attends the Political Science Department’s pre-election panel discussion on October 2, 2024
This election is a mix of familiar historical patterns and unprecedented dynamics. While turnout may not match the highs of 2020, key issues like the economy, international conflict, and abortion will play a significant role in shaping voter decisions. The media, as always, will continue to influence perceptions of the candidates, but the outcome remains uncertain. As we await Election Day, the nation braces for surprises, the long-term implications this election will have on political engagement and the future of American democracy.
Students are encouraged to attend the Election Night Watch Party hosted by the Department of Political Science in Cardinal Halls from 6-10 p.m. on Tuesday, November 5.
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