Retention and DFW grades (Ds, Fs or withdrawals) are common topics when it comes to student success, but not all DFW grades have the same impact on whether a student will stay enrolled. In our recent analysis of first-year students at Ball State, we found that the type of DFW grade—whether a D, F, or W—plays a significant role in a student’s likelihood of returning for future semesters.

 

Analysis Overview

This analysis focused on first-time, first-year students who started at Ball State between Fall 2018 and Fall 2022. We discovered that earning just one D or W grade is not necessarily harmful for a student’s retention. However, earning multiple F grades is a strong predictor of lower retention, indicating that the type of grade makes a meaningful difference. Understanding these distinctions can help us shape interventions to support students before they reach the point of failure.

 

Prevalence of DFW Grades

We start our analysis with an overview of how many students experienced DFW grades. We found that half of all first-time undergraduate students earned at least one DFW during their first year, highlighting the need for targeted support. As shown in Figure 1, 54.6% of these students (9,922 out of 18,181) earned at least one DFW grade in their first year. This finding emphasizes the importance of addressing academic challenges early to improve student outcomes.

 

Figure 1. Percentage of Students Earning Any DFW Grade in First Year

Some students earned more than one DFW in their first year, as shown in Figure 2. In fact, just over 25% of first-time students earned three or more.

 

Figure 2. Percentage of Students Earning DFW Grades in First Year

 

DFWs and Retention

There was a relationship between DFWs and retention, with fewer DFWs associated with greater retention rates. As shown in Figure 3, the first-year retention rate was 91.5% for students with no DFWs in their first year. For those with one or more DFWs, the retention was 61.6%.

 

Figure 3. Retention Rate and Earning a DFW Grade

Looking further, however, the relationship becomes more complicated. Let’s look at the number and type of DFWs—first separately, then together.

We found that the number of DFWs mattered for student retention. As the number of DFWs increased, the retention rate decreased. A clear stepwise pattern can be seen here in Figure 4. Although our focus may be on the low retention rates among students with five, six, or more DFW grades, some students still demonstrated resilience by returning despite facing significant academic challenges.

 

Figure 4. Retention Rate by the Number of DFW Grades

 

Impact of the Specific Grade Earned

In considering the type of DFW grades earned, we found that students earned a mixture of D, F, and W grades. As shown in Figure 5, among students with just one DFW, a W grade was most common. As students accumulated more DFWs, most earned a combination of the grades. For example, when students earned five DFWs, there was a noticeable uptick in the portion of students for whom those grades were “W only.” Additional analysis revealed that this pattern was associated with students who withdrew from the university.

 

Figure 5. Type of DFW Grade Earned by the Number of DFWs

 

Further, we found that the type of DFW grade earned was related to students’ retention, with different grades and grade combinations differently impacting whether students continued on to their second year. Figure 6 shows both the number of students earning each grade or grade combination, as well as their corresponding retention rates. The “D Only” group had an average first-year retention rate of 84.3%, while the “W Only” group had a lower average of 68.9%. Students with a combination of D and W grades were in between, with a retention rate of 76.9%. In contrast, all groups including students who earned an F grade (i.e., DF, DFW, F-only, or FW) had retention rates around 50% or lower.

 

Figure 6. Type of DFW Grade and Retention Rate

Bringing things together, we found that both the number and type of DFW grades mattered, in that while earning multiple F grades was detrimental to students’ retention, earning a single W or a few Ds was not. In Figure 7, higher retention rates are indicated by darker shades of blue. In the “D Only” column, the retention rates were around 80% until a student earned five DFWs, after which their rates dropped sharply. In the “W Only” column, the retention rates dropped rapidly after three DFWs. In contrast, the “F Only” column shows that students earning one F retained at a rate of 71.2%, but when students earned two F grades, their retention rates then dropped to 36.2%, with three or more F grades associated with even lower rates. As seen by the lighter colors in all combination columns that include an F (vs. the darker blues of the “D Only,” “W Only,” and “DW” columns), earning an F grade was again related to lower retention.

 

Figure 7. Retention Rate by Number and Type of DFW Grades

 

Statistical Analysis

We conducted a series of logistic regressions to confirm these patterns, separately assessing fall and spring DFW grades. A summary is provided in Table 1. The regression results confirmed that the number and type of DFW grades were related to lower odds of retaining, even after controlling for other important factors. Earning several W grades was particularly negative for students’ fall-to-spring retention while earning multiple F grades substantially impacted fall-to-fall retention. Although results of covariate analyses are not included in the table, the most notable predictors included 21st Century Scholarship eligibility (related to lower retention odds), and both Indiana residency and higher high school GPA (related to higher retention odds).

Table 1. Summarized Logistic Regression Results

 

Summary

Our analysis at Ball State University reveals that not all DFW grades (Ds, Fs, or Withdrawals) impact student retention equally. While earning one D or W grade is often not harmful, earning multiple F grades strongly predicts lower retention rates. The type and number of DFW grades significantly influence a student’s likelihood of continuing their studies, with multiple Fs being particularly detrimental. Addressing these academic challenges early is crucial for supporting student success.

 

Below is a pictorial AI-generated image of the DFW monster. It’s our job to keep it at bay.