{"id":436,"date":"2025-07-22T12:01:40","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T16:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bsu.edu\/irds\/?p=436"},"modified":"2025-07-22T12:01:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T16:01:40","slug":"supporting-sophomore-success-a-closer-look-at-retention-beyond-the-first-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bsu.edu\/irds\/2025\/07\/22\/supporting-sophomore-success-a-closer-look-at-retention-beyond-the-first-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Supporting Sophomore Success: A Closer Look at Retention Beyond the First Year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Although often overshadowed by first-year retention, sophomore retention is a meaningful indicator of student progress.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>This blog post presents an analysis of second-to-third-year enrollment patterns at Ball State, highlighting factors that support continued enrollment. The analysis includes 7,649 Fall 2020\u20132022 first-time students who returned for a second year. The project builds on a project initiated by a Data Literacy Advisory group<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Key terms used in this report:<\/em><\/p>\n

Persisted:<\/strong> A student who continues enrollment from one academic year to the next at the same institution.<\/p>\n

Stopped Out:<\/strong> A student who temporarily or permanently leaves the university without transferring to another institution.<\/p>\n

Transferred:<\/strong> A student who leaves the university and enrolls at a different college or university.<\/p>\n

Odds Ratio (OR):<\/strong> A measure that compares the odds (the chance of something happening versus not happening) of an event between two groups. In this context, it shows how much more or less likely a student is to return for a third year based on a specific factor. An odds ratio above 1 means higher odds of returning; below 1 means lower odds.<\/p>\n

Z-statistic:<\/strong> A value that helps indicate whether a variable is related to the outcome in a regression model. Higher values suggest a stronger relationship with retention.<\/p>\n

Significance (p-value):<\/strong> A value that indicates how likely it is that a result could have occurred by chance. A p-value below 0.05 is typically considered statistically significant.<\/p>\n

Pseudo R\u00b2:<\/strong> A value that gives a general sense of how well the logistic regression model explains sophomore retention. Unlike R\u00b2 in linear regression, Pseudo R\u00b2 doesn\u2019t represent an exact percentage, but the value in this analysis suggests a reasonably good fit for the data.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Why Sophomore Retention Matters<\/b><\/p>\n

While 88% of sophomores persisted for their third year, 12% either transferred or stopped out. That’s about 300 students per class who depart after their second year, many of whom stop out altogether rather than transfer to a different institution. Understanding why they leave and how to support them can help close that gap.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Figure 1: Year 2 Retention Breakdown<\/p>\n

\"Year<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Key Factors that Influence Sophomore Retention<\/b><\/p>\n